Magnus Itland (itlandm) wrote,
Magnus Itland

The recession is over?

The Recession Is Over (Forbes - Opinions)

Light send it isn't so. Not because I particularly want America and the world to suffer, but because we can't afford another boom built on drinking up our children's money. (Not that I have any children, but you know what I mean.) We have to get back down to ground level before we can build.

What I do expect, however, is that the PANIC is ending. Well, there may be Mexican Flu panic, but the financial crisis panic is ending. Actually, the two may even be related, since humans are unable to maintain many simultaneous panics. It is dawning on people that no, all the country's banks are not going to collaps and they don't need to fill their cellars with dried foodstuffs and guard them with a loaded gun because all the money has become worthless. The fact that almost everyone is still alive and the great majority still have some kind of job makes it impossible to just keep on panicking month after month. Sooner or later one asks oneself: If it really was that bad, wouldn't we be dead now?

But there will still be rising unemployment (as the article concedes), still foreclosures, and I am pretty sure there will be new rounds of re-pricing assets, several rounds actually, until we come down to a realistic level. It is going to suck for a lot of people. But it is not the end of the world.
Tags: economy
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