January 10th, 2009

Osaka

It is 2009 - do you know where your AI is?

Back when Vernor Vinge introduced the concept of a technological singularity, he estimated that it would happen between 2005 and 2030. Evidently it has now been postponed to 2045 by Ray Kurzweil. The processing power of the personal computer was estimated a few years ago to exceed that of the human brain by 2018. I believe I have seen this changed to 2020, but that's really more a cosmetic change. So after that, it will supposedly take approximately 25 years for the programming to catch up. I wonder if not even that might be optimistic. (Or pessimistic, if you expect this superhuman computer intelligences to exterminate us.)

How much progress has artificial intelligence really made since the turn of the century, for instance? Collapse )

So, have you met any impressive AIs recently?